Aeroports de Paris (ADP): Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Aeroports de Paris (ADP): Model Update

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

03 August 2026

Aeroports de Paris (ADP) Neutral

ADP.PA, ADP FP

Model Update Price (31 Jul 26):€119.90

Price Target (Dec-27):€115.00

Following H1 results and the announcement of an ERA agreement with the French European Building & Construction

state (link to our first take, and link to our conference call feedback) we update our and Infrastructure

model. We update our 2026E estimates to reflect reported H1 and upated guidance, Elodie Rall AC

leading us to cut our EBITDA estimates by ~1% to leave us in the lower end of the (44-20) 7134-5911

new guidance range (€2,300-€2,350m). We have also made changes to 2027-34E elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

to reflect the new ERA agreement with the French state, which we now reflect in J.P. Morgan Securities plc

our estimates (where previously we had included the parameters from the original Zaim Beekawa

ERA proposal last December), which primarily entails higher traffic growth (44-20) 7134-4175

zaim.beekawa@jpmorgan.com

assumptions, lower tariffs and slightly lower regulated capex. Our Dec-27 PT is J.P. Morgan Securities plc

unchanged at €115, reflecting that while our model update would have reduced it Jamie Smallbone

by ~€2, this was offset by a MTM for the GMR share price since our last model (44-20) 3493-7015

update. jamie.smallbone@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Unsurprisingly, the shares reacted positively to a beat on EBITDA, guidance above Manshi Sinha

consensus and an ERA agreement that is relatively similar to the original proposal. (91-22) 6157 5111

The French state - which is supportive of the proposal - will ask the ART for its manshi.sinha@jpmchase.com

binding opinion in September, after which the regulator has two months to prepare J.P.