Medium-term outlook intact

Research evidence excerpt

Medium-term outlook intact

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Tata Steel- Tata(TISC.NS)Steel (TISC.NS)

Slower growth but foreign business improving and margins expanding domestically

PRICE TARGET Rs235.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Probability-weighted target EV/EBITDA: base case 70%, bull case 20% (upside from improved ▪Tata Steel has strengthened its domestic

global macroeconomic environment supports steel prices and volumes in the medium term, market share and balance sheet over the

further supported by safeguard duty extension), bear case 10% (downside risks from past few years.

unfavorable demand/supply and steel price outlook in the medium term). ▪While profitability continues to face

Key assumptions - target Jun-28 EV/EBITDA: bull case: ~7.5x; base case: ~6.5x; bear case: headwinds from its European operations, we

~5.5x. see improving trends incrementally, led by

policy support. Improving domestic steel Rs223.88

prices should support margin expansion over

Consensus Price Target Distribution Rs170.00 Rs275.00 the next few years. MS PT

this backdrop, current valuationsSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪Against

of ~7x F27 EV/EBITDA appear sustainable, in

our view.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

INR 44% Overweight

Rs330.00Rs330.00(+73.97%)Rs330.00(+73.97%)(+73.97%) 35% Equal-weight

21% Underweight

320 MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

240 Rs235.00Rs235.00(+23.89%)Rs235.00(+23.89%)(+23.89%)

Rs189.69Rs189.69Rs189.69 Risk Reward Themes

160 Pricing Power: Positive

Self-help: Positive

Rs135.00Rs135.00(-28.83%)Rs135.00(-28.83%)(-28.83%) View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

AUG '25 FEB '26 AUG '26 AUG '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target