Metals & Mining: What to expect from 1QF27 results

Research evidence excerpt

Metals & Mining: What to expect from 1QF27 results

IdeaPreviewMto earnings

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Coal India Limited COAL.NS

E-auction volumes and realization trends In-line Largely unchanged

• We expect realizations to expand ~1.5% QoQ, with e-auction realizations expected to rise 6.5% QoQ and e-

auction premiums to expand from 36% last quarter to 44%.

• Middle East conflict-related cost inflation means margins should stay range-bound.

• Consol. EBITDA estimated at Rs123bn vs. Rs127bn last quarter and Rs125bn in 1Q-F26.

Hindalco Industries Ltd HALC.NS

Volumes and margins for both domestic

Likely upside surprise Largely unchanged

business and Novelis

• India aluminium business should benefit from higher LME aluminium prices. India Aluminium EBITDA

estimated at Rs66.8bn vs. Rs57bn in 4Q-F26.

• Novelis: Oswego unit restart means higher volumes (900kt vs. 844kt in 4Q-F26). Favourable scrap spreads

mean margins should stay supported. EBITDA is estimated at Rs43.4bn vs. Rs42bn last quarter.

• Consol. EBITDA estimated at Rs118bn vs. Rs108bn last quarter.

Jindal Steel Ltd JINT.NS

Volumes and NSR Trends In-line Largely unchanged

• We expect volumes to grow at ~11% YoY.

• We expect consol. NSR to expand by ~Rs4K/t QoQ, as the company should benefit from ramp-up of new flat

capacities and greater share of VAP.

• Overall consol. EBITDA/t estimated at Rs11.3K vs. Rs11.2K in 4Q-F26.

JSW Steel Ltd. JSTL.NS

Volumes and NSR Trends Likely upside surprise Largely unchanged

• We expect India volumes to remain strong at +10% YoY (adjusted for BPSL).

• We expect India NSR to expand by ~Rs4K/t QoQ, partially offset by higher RM costs.

• Overall standalone EBITDA/t estimated at Rs11.6K/ vs. Rs9.7K/t in 4Q-F26.

Steel Authority of India Limited SAIL.NS