Japan First to Market

Research evidence excerpt

Japan First to Market

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Japan First to Market 03 August 2026

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Japan Equity Monthly Strategy (Rie Nishihara)

Is the semiconductor correction over? – Japan equity market outlook

The global rally in AI semiconductor stocks that dominated April–June reversed course in late June, and the correction phase

has persisted for over a month. Semiconductor stocks fell 30-40% globally, but in Japan, non-semiconductor sectors, such as

energy, financials, lagging AI stocks (including IT services), and domestic demand names, rose, leading to a broadening in

stock selection and keeping TOPIX largely unchanged. On July 31, the Nikkei 225 took back one-quarter of its decline during

the correction phase in a single day. Earnings at AI semiconductor companies continued to show strong growth, while position

unwinding, the main driver of the correction, was nearing its end. However, we believe that deteriorated market sentiment and

tighter regulations on leveraged ETFs may mean it will take more time to rebuild positions. In Japan, we expect the earnings

gap between AI and non-AI sectors, which widened due to higher crude oil prices, to narrow in 2H. We think that corporate

balance sheet adjustments and capital flow catalysts will help the Japanese market broaden stock selection and transition to a

healthier bull market. Cabinet approval of the Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform should have a

positive impact through increased corporate investment in growth, while upward pressure on long-term interest rates and yen

depreciation is likely to persist, but a shift in asset allocation at the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) could help

mitigate market pressures.