Rexel Feedback from sell-side meeting

Research evidence excerpt

Rexel Feedback from sell-side meeting

Akash Gupta AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-7978 31 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

akash.z.gupta@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Rexel (Overweight; Price Target: €44.50)

Investment Thesis

• Earnings growth set to inflect: After three years of earnings decline, Rexel’s growth

prospects are set to improve from 2026 onwards, where we expect ~30% Adj EPS

growth in the 2026-27 period. Growth will be driven by continued electrification,

European residential recovery, continued growth in data centres and the easing of

headwinds in solar and US automation markets. We expect recovery in revenue growth

to bring operating leverage, leading to margin expansion towards the mid-term 7%

target.

• Attractive valuation with multiple re-rating potential: Rexel's absolute and relative

valuation doesn’t reflect its strong growth potential and margin profile.

• Capital allocation is another driver for upside: Rexel operates in markets which are

fragmented and we see good M&A potential to complement organic growth. The share

buyback will also boost EPS growth, which is not reflected in our model.

Valuation

• Our Dec 2027 Price Target is based on a reverse DCF valuation. The 12-month forward

target multiple is 11.5x EV/adj. EBITA, applied to our 2028 forecasts. The multiple

takes into account through-cycle growth, margin, cost of capital and asset intensity.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

We see the following downside risks:

• If input cost declines lead to deflation, then this would lead to downside to our forecast.

• If volume growth disappoints then it could lead to weak margins.

• If growth in renewable-driven businesses (like solar) slows down further due to

geopolitical issues, then it could create downside to our estimates.