Exxon Mobil Corp: 2Q26 First Take - ALERT

Research evidence excerpt

Exxon Mobil Corp: 2Q26 First Take - ALERT

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

31 July 2026

Exxon Mobil Corp Overweight

XOM, XOM US

2Q26 First Take - ALERT Price (30 Jul 26):$156.97

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

JPM View: Stock Reaction - Slightly Negative. Given the outstanding earnings Arun Jayaram AC

results from its pure-play refining peers such as VLO, we believe the market was (1-212) 622-8541

baking in the potential for an upside earnings surprise given the strength and arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

advantages of XOM’s global refining footprint. As such, we anticipate a slightly Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

negative reaction to the print, which featured an uncharacteristic earnings miss (1-212) 622-3795

relative to JPMe and the Street in the first quarter that featured XOM’s new EPS pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

reporting structure excluding timing affects. The earnings miss reflected lower

Energy Products results relative to expectations. The silver lining was a

significantly higher cash flow and FCF print, which we believe should neutralize

the lower earnings results. 2Q26 CFO ex-working capital was 14% above our

forecast, while FCF ex-working capital of $19.3bn exceeded our forecast by 26%.

We note that XOM’s 2Q26 cash flows had a $2.1bn tailwind, which we believe was

primarily associated with affiliate payments. Upstream segment earnings were 3%

ahead of our expectations on the back of a 5% production beat, including a 6% oil

beat driven by higher Asian volumes. On the other hand, Energy Products results

were 20% below our forecast given some quarter specific downtime challenges

amid a dynamic environment for global cracks. XOM reached a milestone in

Guyana with net entitlements expected to decline by 100 MBoe/d sequentially