Imperial Oil 2Q26 First Take – ALERT

Research evidence excerpt

Imperial Oil 2Q26 First Take – ALERT

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

31 July 2026

Imperial Oil Underweight

IMO.TO, IMO CN

2Q26 First Take – ALERT Price (30 Jul 26):C$180.84

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

JPM View: Stock Reaction – Neutral. We anticipate a largely neutral reaction to Arun Jayaram AC

the print, which featured a sizeable EPS and CFPS beat versus consensus (1-212) 622-8541

expectations on the back of better upstream realizations at in-line production arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

volumes, but a reduction in the company’s refinery throughput guidance. That said, Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

investor expectations were relatively muted ahead of the print, as IMO shares have (1-212) 622-3795

lagged their Canadian peers by 8% over the past month. The company renewed its pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

NCIB in June 2026 and plans to accelerate and complete its share purchases under

the program prior to year end. IMO reported refining utilization of 76% (vs. JPMe

of 83%), which was influenced by the planned turnaround at Strathcona and

unplanned downtime during the quarter. In conjunction with the 2Q26 print, IMO

also updated its refinery throughput guidance for 2026 to 375 kpbd (from

400kpbd), which reflects the unplanned downtime during the year and a short-term

rail logistics issue at Strathcona, which is targeted to be resolved by the end of the

year.

2Q26 Results. Adjusted EPS of ~C$4.42 was +8% above JPMe/Street of C$4.08/

C$4.08, while CFPS (excluding WC) of C$5.20 was 1% above STe of C$5.15 but

4% below JPMe of C$5.40. Relative to our model, the upstream segment beat our

model by 7% on the back of higher syncrude realizations and the refining segment

was +10% ahead of our model on better margins.