J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

31 July 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

We expect a buyers market next week, despite the 2nd

highest semi-monthly reinvestment of the year, given

potential for a steeper curve and heavy supply.

Securitized Products & Public – Next week’s tax-exempt calendar is already sizeable at $16.2bn, with potential

Finance Municipals Strategy

to move higher. The current slate would rank as the 6th largest long-term tax-

exempt week on record and 1.5x the trailing 5-year average for the comparable Peter DeGroot AC

week. However, it would still fall short of last year’s $18.1bn print, which was (1-212) 834-7293

peter.degroot@jpmorgan.com

the 3rd highest on record.

Ye Tian

– This calendar, coupled with the post-FOMC rise in rates, will likely result in (1-212) 834-3051

a buyers market over the week, despite the arrival of the 2nd highest semimonthly ye.tian@jpmorgan.com

reinvestment window this year ($32bn). Roisin A Gargan

(1-212) 834-7010

– Beyond next week, concerns over the path for longer-dated UST rates post- roisin.gargan@jpmchase.com

FOMC could weigh heavily on the richest long-dated portions of our market. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Conversely, if rates rise putting pressure on fund flows against the higher supply

backdrop, more fairly priced 5-10 year bonds and lower duration structures

would outperform even as supply were to decelerate somewhat from its current

record pace.

Tax-Exempt Market Wrap

– The HG muni scale was 4-6bps higher yesterday amidst lower BWIC and near-

zero fund flows. The shift higher in rates reflected a catch-up to the bear-steepening

of the Treasury curve following the FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the market is now