TransAlta Corp: Solid 2Q26 Results, Reaffirmed FY26 Outlook Despite Weakness in Alberta Power Spot Market; Remain Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

TransAlta Corp: Solid 2Q26 Results, Reaffirmed FY26 Outlook Despite Weakness in Alberta Power Spot Market; Remain Neutral

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

31 July 2026

TransAlta Corp

Solid 2Q26 Results, Reaffirmed FY26 Outlook Neutral

Despite Weakness in Alberta Power Spot Market; TACN

Remain Neutral

North America Corporate Credit -

RESULTS: Electric Utilities

• Reported adj. EBITDA: C$291 million Kevin L Kwan AC

(1-212) 270-9455

• Consensus EBITDA median: C$282 million kevin.l.kwan@jpmorgan.com

• Conference call today at 11AM ET Erin Daugherty

(1-212) 834-6990

SUMMARY: erin.daugherty@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Softer EBITDA in a challenging Alberta spot market, but strong

operational execution; FY26 outlook reaffirmed. TACN reported 2Q26

adjusted EBITDA of C$291 million, down 17% from C$349 million in 2Q25.

The y/y decline reflects the lack of generation at the Centralia Unit 2, reduced

hydro environmental/tax-attribute revenues, and soft Alberta spot pricing,

partially offset by favorable hedge pricing, higher availability and wind

resource in the U.S., and favorable settlements of gas hedge positions. Realized

prices continued to settle well above spot on the hedge book, and hydro and

wind environmental credits materially offset the merchant gas fleet’s carbon

compliance obligation. Management reaffirmed its FY26 EBITDA guidance

range of C$950-C$1,050 million. During the quarter, TACN advanced its

Centralia coal-to-gas conversion, announced the ~US$1 billion acquisition of

two fully contracted Colorado gas peakers from a Blackstone subsidiary, and

realigned its executive team.

POSITIVES:

• Hedging and optimization continue to shield merchant exposure. With

61% of capacity in Alberta and 77% exposed to the merchant market, the