2Q26 Missed Top-Line Estimates Across the Board as Results Reflect Tough Crypto Environment with Limited P&L Upside from New Products

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Missed Top-Line Estimates Across the Board as Results Reflect Tough Crypto Environment with Limited P&L Upside from New Products

(FYE Dec)

continues to underperform as an asset class exemplified by pressured asset Prev Cur Δ

prices, flows favoring other risk-on assets (i.e. AI equities), and a lack of Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 0.91 (0.58)-163.7%

Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 4.21 2.55 -39.3%

catalysts. The total crypto ecosystem fell 13% in 2Q26 with DeFi falling a

larger ~23% q/q. Industry spot volumes also declined in 2Q (-24% q/q, -39% Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

y/y), with which COIN performed in-line exemplified by total reported spot Adj. EPS ($)

volumes of $146bn (-24% q/q, - 35% y/y). We now see the crypto market 2025A 2026E 2027E

bouncing back slightly, up ~9% through July to a total market cap of ~$2.2tr, Q1 1.93 (0.17)A 0.40

Q2 0.12 (0.40)A 0.80

which is still tracking ~42% lower y/y. However, we lower 3Q Coinbase spot Q3 1.44 (0.25) 0.72

volumes estimates as its ADV remains weak 3Q26TD, down ~36% q/q (vs. Q4 0.66 0.23 0.63

industry spot volumes -31% q/q). FY 4.03 (0.58) 2.55

• Stablecoin revenue lags our expectations. Coinbase reported total USDC- Style Exposure

related income of $320mn—$174mn from Coinbase on-platform USDC

balances and $146mn off-platform— below JPMe $340mn. We think the miss

here was driven by higher third-party distribution costs shared between

Coinbase and Circle. We model Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue (JPMe

$370mn) rebounding sharply in 3Q26 from a ~$52mn top-line benefit of a full

quarter of Hyperliquid USDC considered “on-platform” for Coinbase. Recall,

we walked through these USDC distribution dynamics, particularly in relation

to the Hyperliquid agreement, in this note linked here.

• Calibrate model to new adj. opex build; JPMe FY26 $4,338mn.