Central Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Central Europe

The second is the evolution of

gradually shifting towards hikes, although the bar for tighten-

core CPI, particularly whether the expiry of the “voluntary

ing remains high. The final CPI details will be key for assess-

price agreements” between specific sectors and the previous

ing the NBP rate outlook.

government results in higher inflation readings. To our under-

standing, caps on banking fees, telecom prices and pharma-

CNB on hold next week, hiking later ceutical prices all expired around mid-year, and we should

The flash release of Czech CPI for July is unlikely to be as therefore start to see some normalization in pricing dynamics.

affected by energy prices as Poland’s. Pump-level surveys As a result, we expect core inflation measures to move some-

suggest fuel prices rose 2.8%m/m in July, lifting annual fuel what higher, with core CPI rising to 2.2%oya (from 2.0%)

inflation to 18.9%oya, but with only a marginal impact on and core CPI excluding food to 3.3%oya (from 3.1%). Head-

headline inflation. Given the subdued state of food inflation, line CPI, however, is set to remain contained at 1.7%oya

as well as other energy prices (supported by electricity tax (flat), which should leave the NBH comfortable enough to

cuts earlier in the year), headline inflation is likely to have deliver another 25bp rate cut in August, taking the policy rate

remained contained in July at 1.6%oya, up from 1.5%. This is to 5.5%.

despite elevated fuel inflation and, more worryingly, the per-

sistence of core inflation, which has remained above target Data releases and forecasts

since mid-2018.

Czech Republic:

Mon PMI

Figure 4: Czech headline and core CPI

%oya Aug 3 Index

4 9:00am Apr May Jun Jul

Headline PMI, Manufacturing 52.9 52.2 53.9 __

3 Core

Wed Consumer prices