Call it a week: European IG and HY TMT update

Research evidence excerpt

Call it a week: European IG and HY TMT update

Andrew Webb AC Europe Credit Research

(44-20) 7134-0121 31 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

andrew.x.webb@jpmorgan.com

low-single-digit growth), reflecting timing effects in Financial Services and a

more cautious macroeconomic backdrop despite stronger Merchant Services

trends. However, management reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA guidance of €630-

650m and improved free cash flow guidance to-€40m to -€60m (from -€70m to -

€80m), citing continued cost discipline, improving commercial traction and benefits

from the North Star transformation programme.

The Week Ahead

Eutelsat (ETLFP): We expect H2 Operating verticals revenues to decline 5.3% y/y to

€607m, led by continued declines in Video and soft Fixed Connectivity revenues.

Structural and sanctions related pressure will weigh on Video; offset by Connectivity growth.

We expect Government Services revenues will increase ~6%; Mobile connectivity ~12% on

ramping aviation installations and backlog conversion, plus incremental OneWeb mobility

contract activations; and Fixed connectivity to decline ~5%. Adj. EBITDA should decline

6.6% to €319m with FY25/26 margins slightly lower y/y in-line with guidance. Capex is

expected to be €606m as most of the FY25/26 capex is expected to be invested in 2H with

FY25/26 capex expected to be ~€900m after Eutelsat reduced its initial target of €1.1bn on

phasing and reduced GEO capex. Net debt is expected to be ~€1.8bn after the company’s

€1.5bn capital raise with net leverage reaching 2.8x. 2026 Outlook: The company affirmed

FY26 outlook for around stable Operating Vertical Revenues, Adj. EBITDA margin slightly

below FY24/25, gross capex of ~€900m and net leverage of ~2.7x.

Figure 1: Eutelsat H2 FY25/26 expectations

€m

Source: J.P.