EM Edge Data Watch: Between a shock and a hard place

Research evidence excerpt

EM Edge Data Watch: Between a shock and a hard place

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

31 July 2026

EM Edge Data Watch

Between a shock and a hard place

• Most EM Edge central banks should remain on hold through end-2026 EM, Economic and Policy Research

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc

• Our baseline points to gradual easing in 2027, not broad accommodation (44 20) 7742-2466

• Risks are skewed towards tighter policy with lingering supply-side risks nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Also MENA’s new front, Uruguay pensions, and Bolivia closes the deal Katherine Marney

(1-212) 834-2285

Few jobs in finance seem more daunting today than being a central banker, except katherine.v.marney@jpmorgan.com

perhaps being an analyst with the phrase “oil price forecast” in their note. The J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

challenges confronting central banks are indeed formidable. Sharp swings in oil prices Juan Goldin

amid the now-on, now-off conflict in the Middle East compound the already Gordian (57 601) 869 8746

trade-offs monetary policymakers typically face during global energy shocks. juan.goldin@jpmchase.com

BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

Central banks have to decide whether to look through a short-lived inflation burst or Mahmoud Harb

act early to nip second-round effects in the bud, in case risks of such effects increase (65) 6882-1640

or multiply. Cost-push pressures from hydrocarbon prices are mahmoud.harb@jpmorgan.com

being amplified by persistent strains on global supply chains (Figure 1), techflation, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

and the threat that the ongoing El Niño will disrupt agricultural production.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy strategy is fueling The EM Edge Data Watch weekly is our flagship