Global Markets Macro Research: U.S. Inflation - July CPI Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Macro Research: U.S. Inflation - July CPI Preview

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

31 July 2026

Mexico weekly

A busy week ahead

EM, Economics Research

Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca

Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero

See our full research on Economics: Mexico Santiago Homberg Saury

(52-55) 5540-9499

• Banxico to remain on-hold at 6.50% next week santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

• July inflation to sit at 3.10% as benign dynamics extend to 2H J.P.MorganMorganGrupoCasaFinancierode Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

• GDP expands 6.2%saar in 2Q on the back of a strong start in April

• May domestic demand data next week to confirm 2Q lost traction fast

Banxico is likely to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting as it balances

benign domestic inflation dynamics, below-potential growth and the risk of a

potential Fed rate hike later this year. Against this backdrop, we expect the

statement to maintain a neutral tone, although it could gradually shift in a more

hawkish direction as the Fed factor gains traction. The day after Banxico’s

decision, July inflation data should show headline inflation running at 3.10%oya,

as both core and non-core inflation continue to trend lower. On the growth front,

next week’s demand-side data releases should provide additional insight following

this week’s flash 2Q GDP report. The strong print was underpinned by robust

growth early in the quarter, although momentum weakened thereafter. In line with

this moderation, we expect declines in both consumption and investment during

May.

Banxico preview - Holding course

Next week, we expect Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%,