Global Markets Strategy: J.P. Morgan Market Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Strategy: J.P. Morgan Market Watch

largely a sympathy move to US Fed-credi- this month, widening 18bp since 6-Jul (to ~104bp) vs. just

bility-driven steepening. We see intermediate German yields 3bp for the broader EUR Senior Non-Financial benchmark, as

as cheap and thus remain high-conviction long 10Y Germany supply indigestion fears rose after Amazon’s $25bn deal.

outright and long 10Y Bund vs UST as we expect German YTD, hyperscalers have issued about €23.5bn in euro-denom-

curve directionality to revert to bull steepening/bear flatten- inated issuance (plus £5.5bn GBP and CHF5.9bn), but the

ing. In the UK, the BoE left rates on hold while turning euro share of total HG syndicated hyperscaler issuance is

slightly more hawkish with a tighter 6–3 vote and a wait-and- only 11.4% (GBP 3.1%), below prior expectations as more

see stance that retains an implicit tightening bias despite dov- funding has gone to smaller currencies (CAD, CHF, JPY).

ish forecasts; we still expect a November hike contingent on Given the lighter-than-expected EUR issuance, the FY26

firmer underlying services inflation or wage expectations and euro-denominated US hyperscaler supply forecast is cut to

hold long 10Y gilts. In Japan, the BoJ held rates steady but €50bn (still ~€27bn likely in Sep–Nov). Hyperscalers are

sounded more hawkish (raising the risk of a September hike if 1.2% of EUR IG today but could reach ~5.7%–7.9% by 2030

the yen weakens), while GPIF-driven flows, fiscal/tax uncer- (European Credit Weekly, Jul 31st).

tainty, and mixed super-long JGB demand dynamics leave

curve pressure and supply-demand headwinds intact; we hold Figure 1: Year-to-date returns

tactical 5s/20s JGB curve steepeners. (GFIMs, Jul 31st) %

MSCI Korea ($) 47