Global Market Strategy

Research evidence excerpt

Global Market Strategy

Harry Downie AC (1-212) 270-9500 Amanda Berke (1-212) 834-5739 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A N

harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com TIPS Strategy

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 31 July 2026

Jay Barry (1-212) 834-4951

john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Market views

Wednesday’s FOMC meeting triggered the largest inflation market repricing since

April 2025. While the statement and the decision itself came in broadly in line with

expectations, with rates on hold and enough dissents to open the door to a September

hike, the press conference ultimately signaled a more dovish Fed and what we believe

will be a more persistent repricing of inflation markets (see That’s incredible!, Michael

Feroli, 07/29/26). We see three primary drivers of the repricing:

First, Warsh is considering moving the goalposts for inflation. While having

previously highlighted in his first FOMC meeting that changing the inflation target itself

was outside the remit of the task force reviews, Chair Warsh on Wednesday appeared to

put it back into the remit (see You can observe a lot just by watching, 07/16/26). When

asked about the inflation measure he relies upon, he cited core PCE as the “proper

standard answer,” but then noted that his own preference was for a broader range of

inflation measures. He also indicated that the task force is likely to also point in the

same direction. There are a wide range of measures of inflation for the US economy and

core PCE sits towards the hotter end of that distribution, implying that any change

would likely have dovish implications for monetary policy expectations (Figure 1MovingawayfromCorePCEimpliesalesrestrictivestanceofmonetarypolicy). The