Global Data Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

31 July 2026

• Expecting a December Fed hike; Sept. hold requires CPI moderation

• Impressive balance in 1H26 global GDP as Europe, non-tech activity lift

• Japan intervenes while the BoJ keeps door open to September hike

Economic and Policy Research

• Next week: Global PMI up; US jobs (75k); Banxico holds, COPOM cuts

Bruce Kasman

(1-212) 834-5515

And isn’t it ironic? bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

July central bank meetings reinforced our view that a broad DM hiking cycle is on

Joseph Lupton

the horizon. While we look for one hike from each G4 central bank before year-end, (1-212) 834-5735

markets appropriately price in the risk of earlier and more action. This risk bias is joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

linked to the rising possibility that the Fed starts earlier than our forecast for JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

December. The anticipated 2H26 moderation in US inflation and consumer Nora Szentivanyi

spending should stay the Fed’s hand until a clearer tightening in labor markets is (44-20) 7134-7544

established. While data surprises may prompt earlier action (we forecast a 4.3% nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

July u-rate next week), this week’s FOMC meeting highlights another reason why J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the committee may act earlier. Contents

The wages of our inflationary sins 13

The three July dissents (we expected two) show a rising number of hawkish FOMC East Asia: Terms of trade amid tech and oil

members not likely to be dissuaded by a new chair’s advocacy of patience. volatility 18

South America: Reform-driven capex and growth 20

Nonetheless, the majority of FOMC voters appear data dependent as they look Türkiye: Dissecting FX supply-demand dynamics 23

towards September.