JPM | US Energy: Megawatts, Molecules & Minerals: Guns & Butter Redux

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US Energy: Megawatts, Molecules & Minerals: Guns & Butter Redux

Brendan Henrici - Specialist Sales - US Energy AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbrendan.henrici@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 02 August 2026

JPM | US Energy: Megawatts, Molecules & Minerals: Guns & Butter

Redux

Brendan Henrici, CFA

+1 212 622 2729

brendan.henrici@jpmorgan.com

Introduction:

Hello! I hope you are all having a restful weekend after quite the volatile week. This week’s note is a bit macro-oriented, but ties

in some of the things we are learning from earnings. There are some very interesting parallels today to the 1960s and (I think!) its

especially worth reading to the end. As always, thoughts on earnings ahead are below as well. The below is the view of sales and

investor feedback and not that of research unless explictly noted.

Spec Sales View:

So much for a sleepy summer. What a week. Equity volatility, bond volatility, commodity volatility, fx volatility. Every type of

volatility — you name it, we got it. In an ever-so-short moment of reprieve, momentum saw its largest single day advance in five

years (5.7z) on Thursday. In the bond market, the 30yr saw its largest rise in yield on a Fed decision day (11bps) in 15 years. In

short, there were a lot of moving parts this week. I want to start with the fed because I think it ties back well to what we are

learning from energy earnings and helps make sense of the price action.

On Thursday, I wrote the following autopsy of the post FOMC price action. This is important to keep in mind despite the

momentum “rally” (I prefer dead-cat bounce) for reasons I’ll explore below:

…implicit in the 11bp rise in the long end of the yield curve was a message: the rolling supply disruptions in energy are not a