Risk Reward Update

First-page research excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

July 31, 2026 03:39 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

DiaSorin SpA | Europe

Aisyah Noor

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

DiaSorin SpA (DIAS.MI, DIA IM)

What’s Changed

Medical Devices | Italy

DiaSorin SpA (DIAS.MI)

From

To

Price Target

€60.00

€65.00

Bull Case

€76.00

€83.00

Base Case

€60.00

€65.00

Bear Case

€45.00

€49.00

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for DiaSorin SpA (DIAS.MI) has been updated

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

Equal-weight

In-Line

€65.00

€68.96

€92.32-52.34

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

3.99

3.94

3.84

4.41

4.35

4.90

4.84

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

Updating our model post Q2'26 results, which were better than expected. Key

changes are: 1) Increase in our LTG growth to reflect the Q2 beat and improving endmarket demand for Life Sciences, 2) Increase in our gross/EBITDA margin to reflect

the tariff refund benefit, which we estimate at ~€5m for FY26 (excluding nonrecurring benefits), 3) FX, which amounts to a slightly lower headwind vs prior. Our

ImmunoDx CER growth forecast is unchanged at 5% as we remain conservative on

the China VBP headwind, while our Molecular CER growth forecast of 5% also

remains below guide of LDD% to reflect conservatism on the Q4 flu ramp and

competition. In total, our group FY26/27E sales move +1%/+1%, while EBITDA adj

move +2%/+0%. Our PT and Bull/Bear cases move by ~+9% to €65 / €83 /€49 to

reflect the above upgrades, plus an increase in our valuation multiple to 11x/12x/9x

FY26 EBITDA respectively (previously 10x/11x/8x), reflecting market multiple

expansion.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

…