Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – DiaSorin SpA (DIAS.MI)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Group Constant Currency sales

3.6 3.9 6.2 6.6

growth (%)

Immunodiagnostics Constant

7.0 5.0 6.5 6.5

Currency sales growth (%)

Molecular Constant Currency sales

0.0 5.0 7.0 9.0

Gross Margin (%) 65.1 64.2 64.3 64.9

EBITDA margin (b/f abnormals) (%) 33.0 32.5 32.9 33.6

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Immunodiagnostics: at ~50% of our mid-term RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

growth forecast, immunodiagnostics growth Accelerated clinical adoption of the MeMed

through CLIA is the single greatest value driver test in the US Sales / 1,298

Luminex: strengthens the Molecular offering in Stronger flu season driving higher respiratory Revenue 1,276 1,361

the fast growing syndromic testing market testing demand (€, mn) 1,311

Limited commercial success in competitor

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE launches 428

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 353 470 0-10% (€, mn) China and India Delay of LiaisonPlex menu expansion in the US 424

0-10% India Competition in MeMed BV testing market from

0-10% Japan new market entrants (e.g. Beckman)

0-10% Latin America Extended Covid sales unwind EBIT 318

0-10% MEA 263 341 (€, mn)

0-10% Mainland China 310

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 0-10% UK

30-40% Europe ex UK Inst. Owners, % Active 76.4% 237

40-50% North America Net income

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.6x (€, mn) 184 253

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 228

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Net Exposure 13.1%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund 4.41

MS ALPHA MODELS exposures held with MSPB. Information may be EPS 3.55 4.92

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market (€)

trends.