Forward Focus | CEEMEA: Key Metrics into Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Forward Focus | CEEMEA: Key Metrics into Earnings

EMEA Equity Research AC CEEMEA Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-9899 31 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

EER_publications@jpmorgan.com

Catalyst Watch

Clients tell us that their most valuable counterparts are those who successfully differentiate signal from noise. Aimed to provide clarity

around the particularly busy periods of reporting and upcoming events, Catalyst Watch is our short-term conviction indicator for our

coverage universe. It is an optional indicator our research analysts can apply into a specific event in order to articulate short term positivity

or caution based on near-term fundamentals. As such, it can differ from the analysts’ published ratings, which are sector relative and longer

term in nature.

Positive Catalyst Watch

Ticker Company Name Catalyst Catalyst Date Rating Rationale Link

GFI SJ Gold Fields Ltd 1H26 results 25-Aug-2026 OW If Mgmt can demonstrate progress in its negotiations with the Ghana Link

government (and potentially positive updates on its Windfall project), this could

help GFI recover its Ghana-related underperformance. Our 1H26 EBITDA is 7%

above Bloomberg consensus.

FSR SJ FirstRand Ltd FY26 results 10-Sep-2026 OW We expect the results to provide incremental detail on the UK exit timelines/ Link

structure and capital priorities, which could drive a re-rating. We estimate up to

R40bn of capital (c.7% of market cap) could ultimately be available for

shareholder returns depending on exit structure.

Negative Catalyst Watch

KAP LI NAC Kazatomprom JSC 1H26 results 21-27 Aug (TBC) N We expect near-term earnings risk driven by oil price-related inflation on Link

transportation and consumables, higher sulphuric acid costs, and FX headwinds

as the Kazakh Tenge has strengthened against the USD.