Nemetschek: A better business, a harder story

Research evidence excerpt

Nemetschek: A better business, a harder story

Richard Nguyen +33 1 42 13 54 22 richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com 31 July 2026

DETAILS

A SHARP SELL-OFF DESPITE RESILIENT UNDERLYING GROWTH

Nemetschek shares fell by c.14% yesterday as investors focused on the EBITDA miss, weaker margin visibility and

the near-term dilution from HCSS. The reaction may appear harsh given that revenue was slightly ahead of expectations and

organic guidance was reiterated. However, the publication left the market with a less attractive near-term earnings profile and

more uncertainty around the path to margin expansion.

The most immediate disappointment was profitability, in our view. Revenue reached €328m, c.1% above consensus, but

EBITDA of €99m missed consensus by c.4%. The EBITDA margin declined by 40bp yoy to c.30%, 130bp below consensus.

EBIT was also c.3% below expectations, with a c.24% margin versus the c.25% consensus forecast. Management attributed the

EBITDA shortfall mainly to a high-single-digit million-euro transactional FX impact and acquisition-related one-off costs.

The miss also reinforced concerns about the consistency of earnings delivery. Nemetschek has beaten consensus revenue

expectations in four of the past six quarters, but its EBITDA performance has been less reliable, with three misses, one in-line

result and two beats over the same period. This gap between solid revenue execution and more volatile profit delivery matters

because the investment case increasingly depends on operating leverage from the subscription transition.

HCSS added a second layer of uncertainty. The acquisition is expected to contribute around 600bp to FY26 revenue growth,

but the mandatory IFRS deferred-revenue haircut will reduce its reported 2H26 revenue contribution by a mid- to high-twenties