Difficult Path to Recovery

Research evidence excerpt

Difficult Path to Recovery

Idea

July 31, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMWestern Union Co | North America James E Faucette

Equity Analyst

Difficult Path to Recovery James.Faucette@morganstanley.comMeryl R Thomas, CFA +1 212 296-5771

What’s Changed Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0774

Michael N Infante

Western Union Co (WU.N) From To Equity Analyst

Price Target $7.00 $6.00 Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4631

Shefali Tamaskar

We remain skeptical of the lowered FY26 outlook as it assumes ResearchShefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-4948

improvement in Americas retail, timely Intermex closing, and

Western Union Co (WU.N, WU UN)

solid execution across cost initiatives. We continue to see

Payments and Processing | United States of America

competitive pressures, macro, and structural margin pressures Stock Rating Underweight

as unfavorable. Remain UW. Industry View Attractive

Price target $6.00

Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) $7.69

Key Takeaways Mkt52-Weekcap, currRange(mm) $10.35-6.91$4,088

Stock down 9%t; Reduced FY26 outlook still carries downside risk, given reliance Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

on Americas retail recovery, timely Intermex closing, and cost execution. EPS ($)** 1.75 1.28 1.49 1.62

P/E 5.3 6.0 5.2 4.8

Americas retail remains weak despite easier comparisons, with US-to-Mexico Div yld (%) 10.2 12.5 12.9 13.5

improving but other, higher-yield corridors still pressured. Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

Margin pressure remains structural, as transactions continue shifting from higher- **e ==MorganBased onStanleyconsensusResearchmethodologyestimates

profit cash payout to lower-contribution account and wallet payout.