Fortescue: 4Q26 results: record FY26 shipments overshadowed by cost inflation and weak Iron Bridge outlook; retain OW

Research evidence excerpt

Fortescue: 4Q26 results: record FY26 shipments overshadowed by cost inflation and weak Iron Bridge outlook; retain OW

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

31 July 2026

Fortescue Overweight

FMG.AX, FMG AU

4Q26 results: record FY26 shipments overshadowed by Price (30 Jul 26):A$18.86

cost inflation and weak Iron Bridge outlook; retain OW ▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$23.00 Prior (Jun-27):A$24.00

Key takeaways: 1) Q4 hematite shipments were ahead of JPMe, while unit costs

were a touch lower; despite a weaker than expected achieved price, the company Australia

finished the period in a better than expected net debt position of just $0.8bn, 2) Iron Head of Australia Metals & Mining

Bridge continues to struggle - a $750m impairment has been recorded, FY27 AC Lyndon Fagan

attributable costs are ~$900m or around $100/t, no value in use premium is being (61-2) 9003-8648

achieved, and medium-term cost guidance / nameplate capacity looks optimistic lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

- we no longer have a positive NPV for the asset and expect a FY27 loss of $150m J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

(the asset now lacks relevance), 3) FY27 hematite C1 guidance of ~$21/t is up Australia Metals & Mining

~9% YoY, and although we had this captured in our numbers; it was about $1/t Jonathon Sharp

higher than cons; FY27 capex guidance is also higher than the street at $3.8-4.8bn (61 2) 9003-8312

(but in line with JPMe). The significant cost pressures created from diesel, jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

explosives, and higher AUD are being felt in what we regard as a very well run J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

business - it provides a read through into what we could expect from BHP / MIN Devwrat Vegad

iron ore cost guidance in August.