Taylor Wimpey: FY completions revised to lower half with H2 outlook set to bring consensus down; shareholder distribution lowered to 4% of net assets

Research evidence excerpt

Taylor Wimpey: FY completions revised to lower half with H2 outlook set to bring consensus down; shareholder distribution lowered to 4% of net assets

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

31 July 2026

Taylor Wimpey

FY completions revised to lower half with H2 outlook set Underweight

to bring consensus down; shareholder distribution TW.L, TW/ LN

lowered to 4% of net assets Price (30 Jul 26):83p

Price Target (Dec-27):70p

Our Take: Taylor Wimpey reported H1 results with H1 Adj. Operating Profit (incl European Building & Construction

JV) of £130m ahead of our expectations of £109m, while H1 UK completions and Infrastructure

(excl. JVs) were 4,723 (JPMe: 4,611) with total ASP in the UK up 6.6% to £334k Zaim Beekawa AC

with the company noting that this was due mainly to regional and product mix. The (44-20) 7134-4175

company added that while underlying pricing has been broadly stable in recent zaim.beekawa@jpmorgan.com

weeks, it remains on average approximately 2% below prior year levels. On J.P. Morgan Securities plc

guidance, management now expect UK completions in the lower end of the old Elodie Rall

guidance range, between 10,600 to 10,800 (excl JVs), with consensus at 10,688 (44-20) 7134-5911

elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

(JPMe: 10,838). The company also stated that market conditions are expected to J.P. Morgan Securities plc

remain challenging for the remainder of the year, with underlying pricing below Jamie Smallbone

prior year levels and full year BCI of 3-4%. The company has not guided to an (44-20) 3493-7015

earnings number but we note that consensus Op.Profit (incl JV) is at £319m and jamie.smallbone@jpmorgan.com

given the end-market commentary for H2, we would expect downward revisions J.P. Morgan Securities plc

to street expectations.