Uniti Group Inc: Solid Fiber Infrastructure Gains; Better Consumer Broadband Adds and Churn, but ARPU Pressure; Build Costs Moving Slightly Higher

Research evidence excerpt

Uniti Group Inc: Solid Fiber Infrastructure Gains; Better Consumer Broadband Adds and Churn, but ARPU Pressure; Build Costs Moving Slightly Higher

al contracted value increased to ~$860m from ~$755m last quarter. Though this Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

remains a relatively low contribution, we are encouraged by the positive trend, Adj. EPS ($)

2025A 2026E 2027E

which should accelerate as inference workloads increase and Uniti leases up the Q1 (0.17) (0.34)A (0.48)

new routes it is bringing online. Uniti Solutions adj. EBITDA guidance was raised Q2 (0.32) (0.68)A (0.54)

by $10m to $315-325m for the full year due to sales of higher margin services. The Q3 6.99 (0.58) (0.60)

Fiber Infrastructure business is gaining momentum, but the competitive landscape Q4 (1.23) (0.40) (0.64)

FY 4.95 (2.00) (2.25)

for Kinetic is pressuring ARPU and increasing retention costs. We maintain our

Neutral rating and establish a Dec 2027 price target of $11 (vs. a Dec 2026 price Style Exposure

target of $12 prior).

• 2026 FTTH passing target increased by 25k; unchanged consumer fiber

subs guidance, but competitive pressures impact ARPU. The fiber build at

Kinetic has ramped up quickly, and Uniti now expects to pass 475-525k for

YE26, up 25k from previous guidance. During the quarter Uniti passed 141k

new homes with fiber, ending the period with ~2.1m homes passed and on

target for the goal of 2.3m by the end of this year. We see Uniti maintaining a

similar build pace in 3Q, with 4Q slightly lower due to seasonality (weather,

holidays) to achieve 500k incremental passings this year, but see upside to our

forecast if Uniti continues to accelerate the build engine. While the FTTH

passing target was increased, expectations for total Kinetic consumer fiber