MOF appears to have conducted JPY-buying intervention: A reversal of structural Yen weakness is unlikely

Research evidence excerpt

MOF appears to have conducted JPY-buying intervention: A reversal of structural Yen weakness is unlikely

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

31 July 2026

MOF appears to have conducted

JPY-buying intervention

A reversal of structural Yen weakness is unlikely

• On the 30th, Japan’s MOF appears to have conducted yen-buying intervention Japan Markets Research

AC for the first time since May. According to media reports, the NY Fed also Junya Tanase

appears to have conducted a rate check for the first time since January. (81-3) 6736-1270

• Given that USD/JPY 160 was initially viewed as the “line in the sand” level, junya.tanase@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

intervention around USD/JPY 162–163 is not particularly surprising.

Ikue Saito

(65) 6801-3154• Intervention conducted while the USD was broadly sold following a dovish

FOMC outcome recalls the intervention on July 11, 2024, which was ikue.saito@jpmorgan.com

conducted when USD/JPY was falling on the back of a weak US CPI print. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

• Intervening just ahead of the BOJ’s rate announcement suggests the MOF may

have been concerned that a dovish interpretation of the policy meeting outcome

could accelerate yen depreciation.

• The 30th’s yen-buying intervention was likely quite large, and cumulative

intervention this year may already have exceeded the total for 2024 (around

JPY 15 trillion). We had viewed the authorities’ desire to avoid reinforcing the

perception that intervention capacity has been reduced due to a sharp decline

in FX reserves as a constraint on additional intervention, and therefore

expected the upper bound for further intervention to be broadly similar to the

April–May amount (JPY 11.7 trillion). It is possible that yesterday’s