APRA Jun-26 Banking Stats: Credit growth accelerated slightly on business strength, but the mortgage slowdown is still to come

Research evidence excerpt

APRA Jun-26 Banking Stats: Credit growth accelerated slightly on business strength, but the mortgage slowdown is still to come

7% in May). The APRA ADI data

Source: APRA, J.P Morgan estimates (for securitisation

showed strong growth for June (18.6%), partly driven by typical seasonality. adjustments). Note: 1) Financial Institution lending is

CBA and WBC grew above system (20.9% and 19.1% respectively) while excludedANZ includesfromSUNall bank-specific business growth rates. 2)

ANZ (17.8%) was broadly in line. NAB lagged peers at 12.2% growth in the

NB: All growth rates are mom annualised unless otherwise stated.

month. The recent NAB briefing showed saw strong B&PB trends in the June

Growth rates adjusted for new entrants. Table 1 includes business

quarter (13.6%) which implied slower institutional trends (~9%) as a result,

lending balances (ex FIs), but total loan balances include FI lending, as

likely reflecting an attempt to manage capital levels. In June, lending to FI’s

well as Govt’s and Community Groups.

was a tailwind for CBA/WBC but a headwind for ANZ/NAB. CBA’s 2H26

business credit growth was 14.9% annualised which is close to our estimates

of 14% for Australia.

• Non-majors: MQG again delivered very strong mortgage growth (22.5%

mom ann.), consistent with the continued expansion of market share which has

now reached 7.3%. BOQ’s housing decline slowed to a still negative -5.1% but

strong growth was achieved in the business portfolio (24.8%). JDO saw very

strong GLA growth of (32.6%) with total balances reaching $14.67bn at FY26

(vs $14.66bn JPMe). BEN recorded soft mortgage growth (2.0%) in June,

outweighed by very strong business lending trends of (40.5%) which were

likely driven by seasonality. For 2H26, BEN posted 3.8% annualised housing