EM FX Daily Report - 31st July 2026. Fri Jul 31 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 31st July 2026. Fri Jul 31 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 31 July 2026

EM FX

RUB Usd/rub hovering around 80.00, but unable or unwilling to break through the psychological

level yet, although it feels like only a matter of time. Perhaps the market is waiting for the

Ministry of Finance to announce its buying program for August next Wednesday. Price action

suggests higher from here.

ZAR All about the yen yesterday which dragged the whole dollar complex lower and USDZAR

below 16.5750/6000 level. Even however before the USDJPY move ZAR was trading well

given the dollar had turned offered on prior nights fed, although I did think we would struggle

to break the 200 day given last week’s SARB. At some point looking to buy a dip in USDZAR

especially as our strategy see fair value closer to 17.30. Trend line support comes coincides

with the 50 day at 16.42, so looking to start to enter longs around there, although I am wary the

yen move turns the view on the dollar making it a fade on rallies. Flow was quiet amongst HFs

and systematics yesterday, but RM continue to buy ZAR, on a six day streak.

TRY USDTRY continues to trade along with the current depreciation path around state bank offers at

47.5250. There was a muted response to recovery in risk sentiment yesterday, as the path of

spot remains largely determined by the current fx framework and fx reserve accumulation. Our

Türkiye view is unchanged, as we remain long TRY and continue to see little prospect of

a short term shift in the FX framework. Real TRY appreciation remains an important anchor for

financial stability and disinflation at the moment. Oil remains the main risk given the continued