G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 31 July 2026

EUR Well from an FX market perspective we morphed from trying to interpret reaction to the Fed

meeting to something wholly different as the price action in the yen went exponential. Without

delving too deeply into the whys and therefores (Charlie’s piece will elaborate) this obviously

helped the dollar lower in general which made sense post Warsh in my view but as I said

yesterday the extent of that move should in theory have some limiting factors. So whilst it is

easy to hope this is the start of a big dollar move I think into the US data next week it is worth

taking some pause for thought here.

At least July is ending in a better fashion than most of the month, the dollar shorts coming out of

the Fed presser worked nicely although as above have reduced a bit, the euro has headed quickly

into a decent resistance zone.

Of course the yen (the low ones I sold Weds eve not low anymore!) price action more forcible

although I am a bit disappointed this morning a more united front could not have been displayed

with a BOJ hike today which would have been a much stronger signal. I am still a small amount

short as got to think there is some sort of plan to not let this just go back to where we started

beyond hoping the US data is soft in the next couple of weeks, maybe giving too much credit!

The reasons I think there was action are twofold, clearly the market has ignored the noise on a

potential flow dynamic shift which they are attempting to engineer given their concern on the

currency (and hence positioning becoming a bit too one sided) whilst also given the regional FX