Poland Economics: July inflation rises on the back of higher fuel prices

Research evidence excerpt

Poland Economics: July inflation rises on the back of higher fuel prices

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31 Jul 2026 04:47:31 ET │ 9 pages

Poland Economics

July inflation rises on the back of higher fuel prices

CITI'S TAKE

Headline inflation at 3% came inline with our estimates, but the data

breakdown implies also a surprisingly strong core inflation. Underlying

price pressures haven't weakened sufficiently to justify a discussion about

interest rate cuts anytime soon. Taking this into account we still believe Piotr Kalisz, CFAAC

the most likely scenario is that of stable rates in Poland in the coming +48-22-692-9633

months, despite dovish comments from central bankers. piotr.kalisz@citi.com

Arkadiusz Trzciolek

July inflation rose to 3% YoY from 2.5% in June, in line with our and consensus +48-22-657-77-50

estimates. Food (-0.8% MoM) and housing energy inflation (0.1%) were largely in line arkadiusz.trzciolek@citi.com

with our estimates, while fuel prices (13.9% MoM) rose less than we had expected

(16%). The latter surprise probably reflects the fact the Statistical Office ended

recording fuel prices in the third week of July, thus not capturing the rise in fuel

prices in final days of the month.

Although the headline inflation was in line with our forecasts, the core inflation

implied by the published data was probably higher. Based on the available

breakdown we estimated the core inflation at 3.1% in July. The core inflation

momentum (3-month moving average of annualized core inflation) is running even

higher - at around 3.6%.

Our inflation forecast assumes that after the summer monthly food prices will

accelerate and will run approx. 0.2pp higher than seasonal factors would suggest,

mainly due to the impact of unfavourable weather conditions (heatwaves). In this