HSBC Holdings plc (0005): Australia retail exit advances simplification; financial impact immaterial

Research evidence excerpt

HSBC Holdings plc (0005): Australia retail exit advances simplification; financial impact immaterial

Katherine Lei Asia Pacific Equity Research

(852) 2800-8552 31 July 2026

katherine.lei@jpmorgan.com

Table 1: Summary of estimated P&L impact

US$ Estimate Expected timing of P&L impact

Portfolio value as at 31 March 2026 $24.9 billion

Estimated consideration $25.0 billion

Estimated costs and write-offs $(0.2) billion

Estimated resulting pre-tax loss on portfolio sale Immaterial (less than $(0.1) billion) By 1H27

Estimated restructuring costs and write-offs on wind-down of

$(0.3) billion 2026-2027

retail business and internal transfer of remaining businesses

By 2028

Estimated recycling of FX reserve losses $(0.3) billion

No incremental CET1 impact

Total P&L impact $(0.6) billion 2026-2028

Total CET1 impact $(0.3) billion 2026-2027

Source: Company data.

Investment Thesis

HSBC’s self-help programs in the past decade have lifted normalized and through-the-cycle RoTE from 8% to 17%. This

means that the adjusted dividend yield (including share buybacks [SBB]) will stay at ~8% after the rate cycle, on our

estimates. Despite a three-quarter suspension in buybacks due to the HSB privatization, we estimate HSBC’s 2026-28 total

shareholder return yield at 6-8% each year, the highest in our bank sector coverage in the Greater China region. We see

declines in revenue in the medium term as a result of business disposals as well as rate cuts and loan growth also under

pressure, but fee income will likely provide some support, given strong momentum in Transaction Banking and Wealth.

The group’s restructuring plan could benefit on the cost side, depending on scale. We expect 2026/27/28 RoTE (excluding

notable items) to be 18.2%/18.7%/18.8%, broadly in line with HSBC’s above-17% guidance.