Antero: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Well Equipped for the Demand Pull Phase of the U.S. NatGas Market

Research evidence excerpt

Antero: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Well Equipped for the Demand Pull Phase of the U.S. NatGas Market

from $300 MM to $600–$700 MM when

extending the view to a five-year horizon. Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS ($)

Operationally, the company continues to report robust trends in the field, with 2025A 2026E 2027E

overall 2Q production of 4.14 Bcfe/d coming in +1% above JPMe/STe at in-line Q1 0.78 1.15A 1.23

Q2 0.35 0.76A 0.65

capex. With the 2Q print, AR announced results from its first dry gas pad in over Q3 0.16 1.11 0.84

12 years, which has delivered a >67% improvement in EUR and a ~30% decrease Q4 0.43 1.17 1.14

in cost per foot. These results highlight the potential for AR to revisit its dry gas FY 1.72 4.18 3.85

acreage using modern drilling and completion techniques to materially improve

Style Exposure

well performance, underscoring the company’s flexibility to lean into its dry gas

position if macro fundamentals are supportive. While some investors may have

been disappointed by the lack of power deals announced by AR this year,

particularly as peers have disclosed agreements near the company’s acreage,

management framed this as a function of selectivity as it approaches negotiations

from what they see as a uniquely advantaged position given its access to premium

prices along the LNG-fairway and meaningful liquids/NGL exposure.

With the 2Q results, AR announced it had executed a $315 MM bolt-on transaction

in West Virginia, which adds 125 MMcfe/d of net production and 15 net locations.

On the back of the acquisition and robust YTD trends in its base business, AR

raised its full-year production guide by 1.8% to 4.18 Bcfe/d. The company

forecasts 3Q26 production of 4.28 Bcfe/d, which assumes 5 Bcfe (~54 MMcfe/d)