Mastercard: 2Q26 Recap - Diversification and Healthy Spend Trends and Yield Drive Upside to Estimates; Raising 2H Estimates; Stay OW

Research evidence excerpt

Mastercard: 2Q26 Recap - Diversification and Healthy Spend Trends and Yield Drive Upside to Estimates; Raising 2H Estimates; Stay OW

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

31 July 2026

Mastercard

2Q26 Recap - Diversification and Healthy Spend Overweight

Trends and Yield Drive Upside to Estimates; Raising 2H MA, MA US

Estimates; Stay OW Price (30 Jul 26):$577.35

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$720.00

Prior (Dec-26):$655.00

We went into Mastercard’s 2Q expecting an in-line quarter but had concerns

around 2H guidance (which previously assumed the Middle East conflict would Payments, Processors & IT Services

end in 2Q) as well as growth optics on various lines compared to Visa. By and large, Tien-tsin Huang, CFA AC

these concerns were unfounded as Mastercard comfortably beat 2Q estimates/ (1-212) 622-6632

guidance on better than expected cross border trends as well as pricing, while our tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.com

2H26 rev estimates move higher. Last quarter, Mastercard showed a notable Connor Allen

deceleration in April cross border, and while the company acknowledged (1-212) 270-2895

connor.allen@jpmorgan.com

improving trends intra-qtr, we were surprised to see high-yielding cross border

Abbey Hochreiner

volume recover and only decelerate 1ppt (April data implied 4ppts), with ex-

(1-212) 270-5798

Europe July trends accelerating. MA primarily attributed this quarter’s broader abbey.hochreiner@jpmchase.com

upside to smaller-than-expected impacts from the Middle East conflict, and we see J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

it as an encouraging reminder of Mastercard’s business diversification as other

regions and corridors (the company highlighted Venezuela outbound) supported

growth (+new wins like Jaywan in UAE and Riyadh Air to come) . Overall growth Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)