The SMID Point

Research evidence excerpt

The SMID Point

Roundup |

Friday, 31 July 2026 31 Jul 2026 07:00:00 ET

ACCompany | Industry Citi North America Research

+1-212-816-5062

Company

Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO.O) - 2Q26 Recap & Model Update: Clear Launch

Momentum in Thalassemia; TP to $52/shr

Agios delivered a strong 2Q26 with WW mitapivat revenues of $44.7M (+116%

QoQ), materially exceeding our estimate and consensus (Figure 1). The beat was

driven by momentum in the early thalassemia launch, where new patient

prescriptions grew 82% QoQ to 442 (from 242 in 1Q26). Despite the strong

quarter, AGIO shares were weak today on apparent concerns that the momentum

in 2Q is not sustainable. However, we would argue this view discounts the multiple

tailwinds in the thalassemia launch that collectively point towards an expectation

of continued growth. During our callback, management reiterated several of these

dynamics such as burgeoning penetration into the non-transfusion-dependent

population, ongoing expansion of the physician prescriber base (emphasis on

breadth), increasing physician awareness buoyed by EHA data, and strong payer

coverage (75% covered lives). We have raised our thalassemia revenue estimates to

reflect these growth drivers, which moves our TP to $52 (+$6).

Buy/High Risk | Target price US$52.00

Samantha Semenkow, Ph.D.

AGIO 2Q26 Variance AGIO Historical Revenue & Citi Estimates

Banc of California, Inc. (BANC.N) - 2Q26 Review - Rebased Expectations

Following the Strategic Actions

Core results this quarter were modestly softer than expected. We view the

securities restructure and subdebt retirement as net positives, but view the loan

sale as a necessary step in order to limit (future) credit pressure points and drive a

higher AEA yield sooner. The dilutive actions move TBV lower, but support a higher