Dovish BoE comments offset extra hike vote

Research evidence excerpt

Dovish BoE comments offset extra hike vote

Global Markets Research

30 July 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Research Analysts

Dovish BoE comments offset extra hike vote European Economics

George Buckley - NIplc

• WhileanothermemberoftheMPCtodaydecidedtovoteforaratehike,makingita george.buckley@nomura.com

6-3decisiontoleaveratesonhold,theGovernorsoundeddovishinthesubsequent +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

pressconference,andnoneofthosevotingtoholdratessoundedinarushtoact. Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

• Rather,partsofthedomesticeconomyweredescribedasbeingweak(despiteGDP +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

inthefirsthalfoftheyearhavingprovenresilient)andthemajorityoftheMPC Josie Anderson - NIplc

soundedgenerallyencouragedbytheongoingdomesticdisinflationaryprocess. josie.anderson@nomura.com

+44 (0) 20 7102 4284

• Asaresult,weleaveourratecallunchanged–fornohike(significantlydependenton

theevolutionoftheIranwarandtherebyenergyprices)andforratecutsnextyear.

Indeed,DeputyGovernorRamsdeneventalkedofthepossibleneedtoreverttorate

cutsshouldtheMiddleEastsituation–andtherebyupsideriskstoinflation–abate.

Summary

While the Bank of England left rates on hold at 3.75% today, Catherine Mann joined Huw

Pill and Megan Greene in voting for a hike. Although this was not our central forecast, it is

not an overly surprising development bearing in mind that Mann put herself in a camp of

her own at the June meeting (separate to the other members voting unchanged rates in

June) – i.e. on hold, but worried about prominent inflation risks.

As the Bank noted, while the MPC is not quite sure how the energy shock will propagate

through the economy at this stage, the longer that oil prices remain elevated (currently just

over $90/bbl) the greater the risk of second-round effects.