TV Tokyo Holdings: Anime strong but spot ads weak, we retain Neutral rating

Research evidence excerpt

TV Tokyo Holdings: Anime strong but spot ads weak, we retain Neutral rating

Global Markets Research

30 July 2026TV Tokyo Holdings

9413.T 9413 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN MEDIA

RatingAnime strong but spot ads weak, we retain Neutral

Remains Neutralrating

Target price

Reduced from 4,500 JPY 4,020Growing uncertainty about spot ad market as Iran war drags on

Closing price JPY 3,680Strong performance at anime business but spot ad sales weak, we retain Neutral 30 July 2026

rating

TV Tokyo Holdings reported 27/3 Q1 operating profits of ¥1.5bn (down 53% y-y), versus Implied upside +9.2%

our forecast of ¥2.0bn and the 30 July QUICK consensus of ¥1.9bn. Earnings at the anime

business were in line with our forecasts but the weakening in terrestrial TV spot ad sales

dealt a major blow to profits. We expect the company to shore up its anime pipeline ahead

of the coming 25th anniversary of Naruto. That said, we see few positive share price Relative performance chart

catalysts given the increasing uncertainty over the advertising market as the Iran conflict

drags on, and we accordingly lower our target price and retain our Neutral rating.

We forecast medium-term EPS CAGR of 5.5% through 32/3 over the 28/3 baseline

(versus 5.3% previously), slightly lower than the Russell/Nomura Large Cap (ex financials)

average of 6–7%. We also factor in the risk of a negative impact on the advertising market

from the Iran conflict dragging on by more than we expect, on which basis we apply a

roughly 15% discount, as before, to benchmark average P/E on 28/3 forecasts of around

16x, yielding a fair-value P/E of around 14x, which applied to our 28/3 EPS forecast of

¥285.7 yields a target price of ¥4,020.

We lower forecasts for terrestrial spot ad sales