1Q beat on higher than expected realisation Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

1Q beat on higher than expected realisation Quick Note

Global Markets Research

Mahanagar Gas MGAS.NS MAHGL IN 30 July 2026

EQUITY: INDIA RENEWABLES & CLEAN ENERGY

Rating1Q beat on higher than expected realisation Remains Buy

Target price INR 1,430 RemainsQuick Note

Closing price INR 1,105 29 July 20261QFY27 results beat estimates on higher realisations; volume largely in line

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) reported 1Q adjusted EBITDA of INR3.4bn, up 32% q-q, and

ahead of both our/consensus estimates by ~40%/30% (Fig.1). The beat can be largely

attributed to higher-than-expected net realization of INR54.7/scm (+12% q-q, 8% ahead of Research Analysts

our estimate), which more than offset the increased gas costs at INR39.9/scm, up 13% q- India Oil & Gas/Chemicals

q and 5% ahead of our estimate. We believe that MGL achieved higher realisation from Bineet Banka, CFA - NFASL

industrial/commercial customers during 1Q because of propane unavailability. Other bineet.banka@nomura.com

operating expenses decreased by 7% q-q as 4Q typically represents a seasonal high for +91(22)4037 4044

these costs (1% below our estimate). Total sales volume of 4.8mmscmd was in line with

our estimate, and up 7% y-y.

Unit EBITDA of INR7.9/scm was up 28% q-q, and 40% above our estimate.

Adjusted net income at INR1.9bn increased 47% q-q, 60% ahead of our estimate.

Overall volume at 4.8mmscmd increased 2% q-q and 7% y-y. Volume for

Industrial/Commercial customers recorded a decline of 7% y-y, likely due to continued

issues with respect to gas availability and potential demand loss due to high prices. CNG

volumes grew a healthy 10% y-y, marking the highest level of the past five quarters.

Maintain Buy rating and TP of INR1,430

We maintain our Buy rating for MGL with a DCF-based TP of INR1,430. The stock