China: The Politburo meeting indicated a shift to "countercyclical" policies

Research evidence excerpt

China: The Politburo meeting indicated a shift to "countercyclical" policies

Global Markets Research

30 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsChina: The Politburo meeting indicated a shift to

Asia Economics“countercyclical” policies

Jing Wang - NIHKThe ruling party’s Politburo met today, with the memo pointing to a more accommodative

jing.wang@nomura.compolicy stance in H2, largely in line with our expectations. Compared with some most

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recent policy meetings, the memo stressed that great attention should be paid to

Hannah Liu - NIHKeconomic hardships and mentioned stepping up “countercyclical” policies. This shift is

hannah.liu@nomura.comconsistent with the latest signals from Premier Li’s symposium in mid-July which

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highlighted the need for pro-growth policies. We expect Beijing to rely more on fiscal

measures to bolster growth, as the memo called for speeding up fiscal spending. Although Ting Lu - NIHK

ting.lu@nomura.comthe memo said monetary policy tools will be adjusted at a proper time, monetary policy is

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likely to take a back seat, as neither a rate cut nor an RRR cut were outrightly mentioned.

We maintain our forecast of no RRR or rate cuts for H2. Notably, the memo mentioned

trade rebalancing.

Following the mid-year Politburo meeting, we expect Beijing to initiate a new round of

supportive measures. However, the scale of such measures might be limited for three

reasons. First, conventional monetary policy measures, such as rate cuts and RRR cuts,

either there is limited space or limited impact. Second, Beijing recognizes that some short-

term policies, such as the trade-in programs, may have pay-back effects and cannot be

used too frequently.