FX Insights

Research evidence excerpt

FX Insights

Global Markets Research

30 July 2026FX Insights

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research Analysts

Post-FOMC strategy thoughts Global FX Strategy

Craig Chan - NSLEven though there are still USD crosswinds, we believe there are less supportive factors

craig.chan@nomura.comfor the USD in the coming weeks, including US macro/policy outlook, Fed

+65 6433 6106

independence/credibility, tech/AI weakness and downside US equity risk, long USD

Dominic Bunning - NIplcpositioning, a likely limit on US-Iran escalation and reduced FX sensitivity to oil prices.

dominic.bunning@nomura.com

• FX strategy: In Asia, we raise the conviction level on our short USD/CNH position to +44 (0) 20 7102 4063

4/5, and remain long SGD/IDR (4/5), long EUR/INR (3/5) and short USD/THB (3/5). In Wee Choon Teo - NSL

G10, we opened a long EUR/CAD position (3/5) and retain short GBP/NZD (3/5). weechoon.teo@nomura.com

+65 6433 6107

• Asia rates strategy: We raise the conviction level on our pay Sep-5y THB rates Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

position to 4/5 from 3, switch our receive 5y5y HK IRS to a spread trade versus pay yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

5y5y SGD rates and keep the conviction level at 3/5. We also maintain a Dec-1s4s +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

Korea NDIRS steepener with a conviction level of 3/5. Vicky Chen - NSL

vicky.chen1@nomura.com

The conclusion of the July FOMC meeting makes us less concerned that the recent +65 6433 6540

upside USD momentum will continue. We maintain our medium-termview of a softer

Manthan Shingala - NSLUSD, but we see less supportive factors for the USD in the coming weeks (despite there manthan.shingala1@nomura.com

still being some USD crosswinds) including: +65 6433 6427

1. The US macro/policy outlook may not justify the relatively high hike pricing for Asia Rates Strategy