Capstone Copper: 2Q26: Solid result and acid concerns addressed; Retain OW

First-page research excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

31 July 2026

Capstone Copper

2Q26: Solid result and acid concerns addressed; Retain

OW

Overweight

CSC.AX, CSC AU

Price (30 Jul 26):A$12.78

▲Price Target (Jun-27):A$17.60

Prior (Jun-27):A$17.30

Key takeaways: 1) Adjusted EBITDA of $354m came in ~4% ahead of

consensus/JPMe on higher copper sales and stronger realised price, with net debt

~10% below JPMe. 2) Production came in slightly ahead of JPMe whilst costs

slightly above, but FY26 guidance is unchanged. Acid consumption was a key

focus - the MV mine plan is shifting 5kt of copper production from cathode to

sulphide operations to reduce acid requirements, and the Mantoverde Pyrite

Augmentation Project ($45m capex) was sanctioned to reduce acid consumption

by ~20% and +3.5ktpa cathode from early ‘28. 3) Pinto Valley reliability remains

a concern, with a September quarter maintenance shut designed to improve the

situation. Overall, we think it was a strong result, with management showing

diligence in reducing acid consumption and hedging cost exposure going forward

incl diesel. CSC remains our top pick in copper, offering peer-leading growth,

attractive valuation, and exposure to a desired commodity. Retain OW, PT of

$17.60/sh. Our FY26 EBITDA is up 1% whilst NPAT is down 6% post the release.

Catalysts ahead for CSC include: 1) Continued operational performance, 2)

Successful tie-in of MVO in Q3, 3) FID of Santo Domingo in 2H, 4) Mantos

Blancos PFS in 2H, 5) potential sale of Cozmin, and 6) continued net debt

reduction.

Australia

Head of Australia Metals & Mining

Lyndon Fagan AC

(61-2) 9003-8648

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Jonathon Sharp

(61 2) 9003-8312

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Devwrat Vegad

(91-22) 6157-3608

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited/ J.P.

Morgan India Private Limited

Zane Guo

(61-3) 9633-4020

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Solid results. Adjusted EBITDA of $354m came in ~4% above consensus/

JPMe on higher copper sales and stronger realised prices, but EPS of $0.13

missed company-compiled consensus of $0.15/sh and JPMe on slightly higher

tax/minority interest. Group C1 of $2.82/lb landed 6% above JPMe $2.66/lb

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