1H26 First Take: Solid set of results, we expect decent performance into the September CMD

First-page research excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

31 July 2026

AXA

1H26 First Take: Solid set of results, we expect decent

performance into the September CMD

Overweight

AXAF.PA, CS FP

Price (30 Jul 26):€45.22

Price Target (Dec-27):€50.00

Our Take: We would describe this as a solid set of earnings, with AXA’s

underlying earnings ~1% ahead of consensus (in-line with JPMe). Here, the P&C

result is largely in-line, but life & health has performed well due to an improvement

in the health business, where underwrting actions to improve profitability have

been quicker than we expected. In P&C, the underlying loss ratio deteriorated (by

~40bps if we exclude the impact of the Prima acquisition), but this can be entirely

explained by losses in XL related to the Middle East crisis, and we would consider

this non-recurring. Underlying margins appear to be improving in the retail P&C

business and commercial P&C ex-XL. Management is guiding to EPS growth at

the upper-end of 6%-8% CAGR guidance for 2026 as well as the 2024-26 plan,

which we think should support the shares into the CMD on 15 September 2026,

particularly given AXA’s valuation discount to its key peers (AXA at ~10x 2027E

P/E vs. composite peers on ~12x).

European Insurance

Noteworthy Areas:

Specialist Sales contact details:

1) Underlying earnings 1% above consensus and in line with JPMe. This

was driven by better results in Life & Health, partially offset by higher holding

& other costs.

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales European Financials

2) P&C underlying earnings in line with consensus and 1% below JPMe.

AXA reported a combined ratio of 90.1% in 1H26, in line with consensus (and

0.7ppts weaker than JPMe, but mainly due to a lower discounting effect and

lower reserve releases relative to JPMe). AXA’s underlying loss ratio

(excluding nat cat, discounting and prior year reserve release) landed at 66.7%,

0.1ppt better than consensus, and 0.3ppt better than JPMe. Excluding Prima,

the underlying loss ratio would have been 67.3%, 0.4ppts weaker year-on-year

driven by non-recurring losses in the Middle East (or +0.4ppts impact). Hence,

the underlying profitability picture excluding this loss looks fairly stable at

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