Umicore: Beat and raise, with room for 2H consensus upgrades

First-page research excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

31 July 2026

Umicore

Overweight

Beat and raise, with room for 2H consensus upgrades

UMI.BR, UMI BB

Price (30 Jul 26):€21.06

Price Target (Dec-27):€27.00

Our take: This is a strong print with a good beat across the most key metrics - adj

EBITDA 7%/9% above JPMe/Vara consensus, adj EBIT 9%/14% above JPMe/

consensus with FCF of +€156m also significantly better than JPMe of -€159m as

the working capital drag from higher metal prices was much lower than we had

modelled. Earnings beat consensus in all divisions with the strongest beat in the

Recycling business. Company has raised FY26 guidance to slightly above €1bn

compared to previous guidance of approaching €1bn, with consensus at €996m.

From our discussion with IR this morning, we understand that the company is

comfortable with the current 2H consensus, suggesting to us that FY26 consensus

EBITDA should see 4-5% upgrades and move closer to €1,040-1050m, with higher

upgrades to consensus EPS. Further, 2H consensus of €465m implies a steep

decline from €577m printed in 1H. While 2H should be lower than 1H as some of

the favorable trends, especially in cobalt refining business, in 1H will likely not

repeat, the steep reduction vs. 1H implied in current 2H consensus leaves room for

some upside and hence a bigger upgrade to FY26 consensus than 4-5% mentioned

by us above. More importantly, any upside to 2H consensus will trigger some

potential upgrades to FY27 and beyond. Given this and the strong bottom-up

fundamentals, the 20% pullback in shares from June highs offers a good entry

point, in our view. We had placed the shares on Positive Catalyst Watch into this

print.

Noteworthy Areas: See Table 1 for details. Group 1H26 revenue excluding

metals of €1,918m came in 2.9%/2.6% below JPMe/consensus. Total 1H26

adj EBITDA of €577m was +6.6%/+8.8% vs JPMe/consensus. Segmentwise, Catalysis adj EBITDA of €250m came in above JPMe and cons, with

margin (ex metal sales) of 28.3% above JPMe/ cons (both at 26.6%). Battery

Materials adj EBITDA of €10m was also above JPMe/consensus. Specialty

Materials adj EBITDA of €88m was the largest beat to JPMe with margin at

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