Holcim Ltd: Q2 EBIT 5% ahead of consensus; FY guidance upgraded to the top end

First-page research excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

31 July 2026

Holcim Ltd

Q2 EBIT 5% ahead of consensus; FY guidance

upgraded to the top end

Our Take: Holcim reported strong Q2-26 results with revenues of CHF4,405m,

3% above company-compiled consensus of CHF4,273m (JPMe at CHF4,345m)

and up 5.5% on a reported basis and +6.4% LFL. Q2 EBIT of CHF1,007m was 5%

ahead of consensus of CHF958m (4% versus JPMe CHF972m) and was +5.4% on

a reported basis and 13.1% on a LFL basis (JPMe: +9.2%). Recurring EBIT

margins were flat y/y at 22.9%. On the outlook, management have upgraded 2026

guidance and now looks for ~5% organic net sales growth (previously: 3-5%) with

~10% organic recurring EBIT growth (previously: 8% to 10%). Elsewhere, the

group continues to expect (i) a further increase of recurring EBIT margin and (ii)

FCF of around CHF2bn. We note that company-collated consensus was already at

the upper end of previous guidance (JPMe a touch ahead) looking for sales of

CHF16,699m (JPMe: CHF16,540m with LFL growth of +5.3%) with EBIT of

CHF3,104m (JPMe: CHF3,037m with 11% LFL growth) implying margins of

18.6% (JPMe: 18.4%). However, we could still see upward revisions given we still

see scope for the company to surpass its revised guidance, particularly on EBIT,

as it implies a deceleration from H1 (LFL EBIT growth of 11.5%) and the company

has an easy comparative base in Q4 on corporate costs. Overall, we think this is a

good set of results, and we had placed the shares on positive catalyst watch into

results on potential for further positive earnings surprise, which is what we have

seen today, once again showcasing Holcim’s stellar execution. Whilst some

investors may have wanted a guidance upgrade above the previous range (given we

have moved just to the top-end), we still think there is some conservatism in the

group’s expectations especially given our aforementioned comments about what

it means for H2.

Noteworthy Areas: By region, the company noted that 1) In Europe, it say

strong net sales, accelerating in Q2, driven by Germany, Switzerland, Spain,

Greece, and East Europe, with a positive contribution from the Alkern

acquisition.…