Credit Agricole: Q2 First take: Strong Q2 supported by good top line performance

First-page research excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

31 July 2026

Credit Agricole

Underweight

CAGR.PA, ACA FP

Price (30 Jul 26):€18.78

Q2 First take: Strong Q2 supported by good top line

performance

Price Target (Dec-27):€17.80

Our Take: Solid. Cred Ag reported clean PBT 12% above company consensus,

mainly driven by higher revenues and lower provisions. Revenues were 4% higher,

mainly driven by Asset Management, Insurance, French Retail and Capital

Markets. Costs were 1% higher, resulting in C/I of 52.6% vs. consensus 54.6% and

PPOP 9% above consensus. Cost of risk was 14% better than expected at 32bp,

helped by the release of S1-S2 provisions. Looking at the divisional trends, pretax

profits were stronger across most divisions except Specialised Financial Services

and Capital Markets. Overall, we would expect some EPS upgrades, supported by

the strong top line. Basel 3 CET1 at 11.3% was 10bp better than expectations due

to positive model changes and OCI impacts, including an interim DPS of €057 (vs.

JPMe €0.56). We remain UW CASA at 7.2x PE, 1x P/NAV for RoNAV 14.2% in

2028e with lower total yields and consensus already optimistic on cost/income

delivery.

Noteworthy Areas: 1) Divisional results: CIB PBT was a 9% beat vs.

consensus driven by Asset servicing and Financial activities. French retail PBT

was 13% above consensus, mainly due to higher revenues. Italy retail PBT was

11% higher than consensus, driven primarily by higher revenues and better

provisions. Asset gathering PBT was 7% above consensus with Insurance

+12%, Wealth Management +6% and Asset Management +11% vs consensus.

2) Capital: Basel 3 CET1 FL stood at 11.3%, 10bp above consensus. 3)

Provisions: CoR for the quarter was 32bp annualised, or €466m, vs. cons.

€541m. 4) Deposits: LCL on-balance sheet customer deposits were +1% YoY

to €167bn. 5) Loans: LCL loans improved +2% YoY to €175bn end Q2.

Likely changes to consensus: We expect low to mid single digit EPS

upgrades, supported by the strong top line.

Valuation: Cred Ag trades at 7.2x PE, 1x NAV for RoNAV 14.2% in 2028e.

European Banks

Delphine Lee AC

(44-20) 7134-3971

Kian Abouhossein

(44-20) 7134-4575

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

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