Clariant: 2Q26 adj EBITDA beat driven by lower-than-expected drag from the ME conflict; FY26 guide unchanged

First-page research excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

31 July 2026

Clariant

Overweight

2Q26 adj EBITDA beat driven by lower-than-expected

drag from the ME conflict; FY26 guide unchanged

Our Take: This is a solid print, given the persistent concerns around the possible

headwinds from the Middle East (ME) conflict in the company’s chemical

catalysts business. 2Q group adj EBITDA of €171m is up 1% YoY (likely up 4-5%

YoY organic) and 19%/12% higher than JPMe/consensus. There is a significant

beat in the Catalysis business, suggesting the drag from the ME conflict, one of the

key bear cases, is lower than expected. This, combined with a favorable court

ruling in Amsterdam earlier this week in the ethylene cartel claims against Clariant

and three other companies by Shell and another entity – one of the other key bear

cases/overhangs on the name – leaves a substantial rerating potential vs. the

relatively cheap current valuation.

Noteworthy Areas: Details in Table 1. Group reported EBITDA of

CHF142m (15.1% margin) came in meaningfully below the adjusted figure but

in line with JPMe expectations. Segment-wise, Clariant delivered

performance in Care Chemicals division ahead of expectations, aided partly by

inventory revaluation gains, with results in Catalysts stronger than expected

due to a better-than-expected trend in constant currency sales growth. Earnings

in Adsorbents & Additives were broadly in line with expectations, with

margins slightly below expectations.

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Outlook & Guidance: Clariant is still guiding for local currency sales to be

about flat in 2026 (incl. ~1% drag from portfolio pruning on the group level,

largely offset by underlying growth in Care Chemicals and Adsorbents &

Additives), with ~3-5% FX headwind on the group level, and group adj

EBITDA margin of around 18%. We calculate that this guidance implies 2026

adj EBITDA of CHF670m-685m, which, at the midpoint (CHF677m), is

6.6%/2.9% above JPMe/Vara cons.

Likely changes to consensus: Limited changes to small upgrades to

consensus possible. JPMe FY26 adj EBITDA of CHF635m is 4% below Vara

consensus of CHF664m.

Valuation: FY26E/27E EV/EBITDA of 7.3x/6.6x vs. 5/10yr median

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