APi Group: 2Q Results: Services First Strategy Scales as Specialty Leads and Backlog Hits a New High

Research evidence excerpt

APi Group: 2Q Results: Services First Strategy Scales as Specialty Leads and Backlog Hits a New High

ust project activity and Q4FY 1,041295 1,223344 1,379

the consistency of the company’s services-focused business model, we are

raising our estimates for FY26/27, with organic revenue growth of 8.9%/5.7% Style Exposure

(from 6.3%/5.3%) alongside total revenue growth of 13.9%/8.4% (from

10.9%/8.1%). We believe the greater mix of Specialty presents a modest

headwind to total company margins, where we now forecast 13.6%/14.1% (vs.

13.7%/14.2% prior) in FY26/27. We are rolling forward our valuation and

establishing a 2027 price target of $50, based on 17.0x our FY27 adj. EBITDA.

• International Softness Offset by Americas Strength: Safety posted net

revenues of $1,482M (4.7% organic), with segment margin flat YoY and adj.

gross margin expanding ~20bps. North America maintained momentum,

growing organically +HSD, underscoring execution of the inspection-first

strategy. Conversely, international safety was flat, pressured by Middle East

macro conflict, project slippage, and pruning of lower-performing service

customers. Management noted a return to organic growth in the back half, with

global accounts traction and data center awards supporting a projected return

toward +MSD. We anticipate international growth turning back toward

historical rates, with North America remaining robust.

• Bolt-On M&A Engine Accelerates with a Path Toward $350M Annual

Deployment: APi remained active on capital deployment, closing Onyx in

June and Wtech in early July, alongside three bolt-on acquisitions during the

quarter. These included the first bolt-on in elevator and escalator services and

one in international safety. Management highlighted Onyx strength in the