Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing: WMT/HD/LOW: Estimates Moving Lower Sans HD; Setup & Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing: WMT/HD/LOW: Estimates Moving Lower Sans HD; Setup & Expectations

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

31 July 2026

Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing

WMT/HD/LOW: Estimates Moving Lower Sans HD;

Setup & Expectations

Overall, we are maintaining our above the Street SSS/EPS forecasts for HD Retailing – Broadlines & Hardlines /

(+1.5% US), but lowering our WMT US SSS below (3.2%) with EPS now in- Leisure

line with the Street/high-end of the guidance range. We are also reducing our Christopher Horvers, CFA AC

LOW SSS forecast to -1.4% and 2H estimates with guidance expected to move (1-212) 622-1316

to the lower half of the range. We like HD at current levels given buyside christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

expectations below our forecast, the 2H setup, and relative valuation. We also Christian Carlino, CFA

believe the bar for WMT will get low enough with margin performance and (1-212) 622-9145

marketplace trends supporting the long-term bull case (thus we would be dip christian.carlino@jpmorgan.com

buyers). LOW is more challenging, at least into the event, given our expectations Jolie Wasserman

(1-212) 622-1961

above (with easier comparisons and presumably a de-risked 2H26 providing relief jolie.wasserman@jpmchase.com

beyond the print). Recall, July is the hardest comparison of the year for most J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

discretionary retailers (followed by August) with significantly easier comparisons

in the backhalf, while there is more of an event shopping pull for the likes of WMT

given back to school (WMT should also get more food inflation). HD/LOW lap a Source: JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA,

historical lack of storms in 2H. The caveat is that the daily move in consumer stocks JPMC Index File 1.0, select Chase credit