LKQ: 2Q EBITDA Slightly Ahead of Street Ex One-Timers; ERP Transition Linked Share Losses Create a New Overhang and Keep Company in Penalty Box Despite Improvement NA Backdrop

Research evidence excerpt

LKQ: 2Q EBITDA Slightly Ahead of Street Ex One-Timers; ERP Transition Linked Share Losses Create a New Overhang and Keep Company in Penalty Box Despite Improvement NA Backdrop

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

31 July 2026

LKQ

2Q EBITDA Slightly Ahead of Street Ex One-Timers; Overweight

ERP Transition Linked Share Losses Create a New LKQ, LKQ US

Overhang and Keep Company in Penalty Box Despite Price (30 Jul 26):$22.60

Improvement NA Backdrop ▼Price Target (Dec-27):$30.00 Prior (Dec-26):$37.00

Remain OW, though expect LKQ shares to remain in the penalty box until early

2027 as ongoing market share recovery post-ERP transition disruption

overshadows improvements in NA market fundamentals, European self-help

initiatives, and resilience in the Specialty segment. Over the past 12–18 months, a

series of self-inflicted disruptions and broader macro headwinds, ranging from tariffs

and US insurance challenges to European macro concerns and the ongoing strategic

review, have weighed on the narrative, shifting the burden squarely onto LKQ to

Autos & Auto Parts

deliver consistent, clean results to re-engage investors. Despite a modest beat

(EBITDA ~2% above consensus adjusting for one-timers, see Table 1LKQ2Q26Detailsvs.JPMEstimates(adjustedforone-timers)), the 2Q print Jash Patwa AC

fell short on this front, with Germany ERP transition issues proving more acute than (1-212) 622-5472

jash.patwa@jpmchase.com

initially anticipated, and the path to share recovery and execution over the coming

Rajat Gupta

quarters is likely to remain an overhang. That said, the ERP transition is a necessary

(1-212) 622-6382

step to unlock the full platform benefits of LKQ’s European scale, and also a long- rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com