US labor market seasonality: avoiding another cruel summer

Research evidence excerpt

US labor market seasonality: avoiding another cruel summer

Nomura | Economic Insights 30 July 2026

Fig. 2: In 2024, the pickup in the unemployment rate in July Fig. 3: In 2025, payroll gains slowed sharply in July, along with

triggered the “Sahm rule” large negative revisions, which Powell used as a justification

Real-time Sahm rule for additional risk management cuts

Note: Marker refers to July 2024

Source: BLS, NBER, Haver, Nomura Source: BLS, St. Louis Fred, Haver, Nomura

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence

Despite two salient recent examples, we do not see strong evidence for a recurring

seasonal pattern in July employment data.

For the unemployment rate, July has historically seen a slight tendency toward positive

surprises (i.e., the unemployment rate coming in below consensus expectations), with

2024 standing out as a negative outlier (Fig.4).

Fig. 4: Historically, the u-rate has generally come in below Fig. 5: Historically, the median net two-month revisions in July

expectations, with 2024 standing out as a negative outlier have been +7k; but 2025 saw an unprecedented -258k

Unemployment rate: Actual minus Bloomberg Consensus Net two-month revisions in thousands

Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Nomura

Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Haver, Nomura

The pattern with employment growth is less clear, since much of the negative outcome in

2025 reflected revisions rather than the July print itself. Historically, July has seen roughly

+8k median revisions to the prior two months (in comparison to +7k for the entire sample);

however, 2025 recorded an unprecedented 258k net downward revisions (Fig.5). In fact,

July 2025 employment growth is somewhat elevated compared to the 3m average at the

time (Fig.6). Looking across recent years, there is no strong trend for July in terms of